Confidence: Mixed — verified Sarnia rack benchmark points (NBEUB-cited, OPIS-sourced); estimated for delivered farm price range. For the full nine-stage decomposition, see op-propane-price-decomposition-farm-bulk-2026.

As of May 2026, agricultural bulk propane delivered in Southwestern Ontario typically runs CAD $0.80–$0.95/L all-in (HST included) for a 3,000–5,000 L bulk farm drop. The pre-2025 norm was substantially higher because of two taxes that have since been eliminated.

Reference levels (May 2026)

• Sarnia hub wholesale (verified): CAD 33.40¢/L on Dec 13, 2025; CAD 36.81¢/L on May 8, 2026 — New Brunswick Energy & Utilities Board Maximum Allowable Prices schedule (OPIS-sourced). See op-sarnia-propane-fractionator-hub for how this price is formed.
• Sarnia hub typical 2025–26 range: 33–37 CAD¢/L (mid-30s). Winter premium over summer is typically 5–15 CAD¢/L.
• Agricultural bulk delivered (SW Ontario, May 2026): 80–95 CAD¢/L all-in. Composition at the ~85¢/L midpoint: commodity 41% · midstream + transport 6% · rack ops 2% · logistics 18% · dealer margin & overhead 12% · HST 12%.
• Implied total marketer spread (Ontario competitive): ~25–35 CAD¢/L rack-to-tank.
• Red-flag threshold: Delivered prices sustainably above $1.00/L for an agricultural account warrant a competitive quote.
• All-time peak (Canadian LPG dataset): CAD $1.29/L on March 10, 2025 (GlobalPetrolPrices.com Canada LPG mean) — pre-dates both tax eliminations.
• All-time low (Canadian LPG dataset): CAD $0.57/L on August 22, 2016.

Factors affecting agricultural propane price

1. Sarnia hub spot price — commodity; ~80–90% of week-to-week movement in delivered price comes from here. Supplier cannot control. See op-sarnia-propane-fractionator-hub and the price-formation section in op-propane-price-decomposition-farm-bulk-2026.
2. Logistics — bulk haul Sarnia → Waterloo (~250 km, ~3–6 CAD¢/L) + last-mile bobtail (10–14 CAD¢/L) is the largest non-commodity component. Truck-delivered SW Ontario is structurally cheaper than rail-dependent Eastern Quebec.
3. Federal carbon charge — zero as of April 1, 2025 (SOR/2025-107). See reg-federal-carbon-charge-zero-2025.
4. Ontario Gasoline Tax Act propane levy — zero as of July 1, 2025 (Bill 24). See reg-gasoline-tax-act-ontario. Note: this levy only ever applied to road-vehicle propane; stationary farm propane was already non-taxable under the GTA.
5. Seasonal demand pressure — September–December grain-drying peak overlaps with November–March residential and livestock heating.
6. Contract structure — pre-buy / fixed-price contracts, summer-fill discount programs, and basis-priced annual contracts moderate spot exposure.
7. HST 13% — applies on top of delivered price; recoverable as input tax credit for HST-registered farming corporations.

Pricing-intelligence model (Manifold integration)

A daily OPIS Sarnia HD-5 feed converted to CAD¢/L using daily FX, plus a +30 CAD¢/L delivered-to-farm overlay, tracks realized farm-gate weekly average within roughly ±3 CAD¢/L. Departures explained by (a) seasonal bobtail load factor, (b) HST recomputation on commodity moves, (c) statutory tax changes.

Sources

• New Brunswick Energy & Utilities Board Maximum Allowable Prices weekly schedule (OPIS-sourced) — verified Sarnia rack benchmark points
• OPIS NGL methodology (Sarnia = Plains Midstream fractionator + Pembina salt-cavern storage)
• SOR/2025-107, Canada Gazette Part II, Vol. 159, No. 2 (March 15, 2025) — federal fuel charge zeroed
• Ontario Bill 24, Plan to Protect Ontario Act (Budget Measures), 2025 — Ontario propane levy removed
• Natural Resources Canada weekly retail propane tracking 2025–26
• GlobalPetrolPrices.com Canada LPG dataset (April 27, 2026 update) — historical peaks and lows
• See op-propane-price-decomposition-farm-bulk-2026 for the complete supply-chain cost stack and confidence table